rising oil prices
A Triple Threat: Food, Fuel and Financial Crises in the Developing World
First, food and fuel prices skyrocketed, causing serious problems for families in the developing world. Now, the worldwide credit crisis has delivered yet another serious blow to the economic outlook for low and middle-income countries.
At the start of the International Monetary Fund/World Bank annual meeting, World Bank President Robert Zoellick warned that the triple threat is potentially a “tipping point” that would “push poor people to the brink of survival.” World finance and development ministers urged wealthier governments not to ignore aid commitments in the midst of their own economic woes. The World Bank has developed a list of 28 of the countries most vulnerable to the triple threat of increased food and fuel prices and the financial crisis.
Not suprisingly, 13 out the 28 countries on this list are in Africa. But sub-Saharan Africa may avoid the worst of the global financial meltdown. A recent article in the Economist points out that the region has a number of things working in its favor. These include a highly regulated banking sector that is relatively unlinked to the Western financial system and natural resources that are drawing investment from countries like China, India and the United States.
Back in January, two IMF staffers noted that investor confidence in Africa was on the rise. Still, it's hard to argue that Africa can continue to make as much progress without outside help, like the promised $350 million more in agricultural loans from the 185-country-owned World Bank. “The stark reality," Zoellick says, "is that developing countries must prepare for a drop in trade, capital flows, remittances, and domestic investment, as well as a slowdown in growth."
Big Prices, Big Oil, Big Trouble?
The average price of a gallon of gas in the U.S. is now just shy of $4. Throughout Europe, drivers are paying upwards of $8 to $10 a gallon. With the rising price of crude oil futures, and the subsequent rise in prices for many other commodities, everyone should be feeling the squeeze.
Everyone is feeling it, that is, except for Big Oil. Major oil companies are posting windfall profits: Royal Dutch Shell and BP reported 25 percent and 63 percent net income increases, respectively, for the first three months of 2008. Exxon reported a record-setting $40.6 billion in net income for 2007. There is a rising fear that oil companies are simply passing the bill of higher crude prices onto consumers.
Congress appears to share these concerns. The Senate Judiciary Committee has called on executives of five major U.S. oil companies to provide some answers. “The people we represent are hurting, while your companies are profiting,” said Committee Chairman Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.). “We need to get some balance.”
These executives fired back, saying that their corporations are being targeted as scapegoats and that the effects of supply and demand are contributing to the rising price of fuel. Moreover, they reasoned that the high cost of development in the oil industry requires they make high profit margins today to prepare for expensive investments tomorrow. The oil execs also placed some of the blame back on Congress by arguing that bans on drilling in regions like the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska are curtailing supply potential.
So where do we go from here — especially when publications like The Economist hint at the potential of $200-a-barrel oil.
Business Week suggests that Americans, and the world in general, will adapt. People will alter their habits to drive less. That's already happening, according to the New York Times, which reports that Americans are already taking fewer road trips and seeking out public transportation more than ever before.
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