Jim O'Neill

Africa May Become First BRIC Continent

Markets like these in Egypt bring in local as well as tourist business, helping to increase Egypt's overall economic strength. Photo: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/9435171@N03/3424964240/sizes/m/in/photostream/">effeietsanders (Flickr)</a>
Markets like these in Egypt bring in local as well as tourist business, helping to increase Egypt's overall economic strength. Photo: effeietsanders (Flickr)

Though they are currently considered to be developing economies, the four BRIC countries — Brazil, Russia, India, and China — are expected to become economically dominant by the year 2050. Now, Jim O'Neill, the economist who coined the BRIC acronym, sees a new emerging power— but it's not a single nation. According to O'Neill, Africa, when taken as a whole, could become the next BRIC.

According to his article in Financial Times, when O'Neill began looking at Africa as a whole rather than as individual nations, he found an economy comparable in growth and potential with the BRICs. Today, Africa has a combined GDP larger than India's and on par with that of Brazil and Russia. If current estimates hold, the total GDP of the 11 largest African economies in 2050 looks as though it would "reach more than $13,000bn, making them bigger than either Brazil or Russia, although not China or India."

O'Neill believes that in particular Egypt and Nigeria are the two countries that have the individual strength to help Africa become a leading world economy. Both are included in O'Neill's group of' the 11 most up-and-coming economies and collectively, they provide almost half of the total African GDP. There is special potential for growth in Nigeria to contribute because almost 20 percent of Africa's population lives there.

While not populous enough to significantly influence continental GDP, South Africa also has a critical role to play. As one of the more developed countries in Africa, South Africa could serve as a connecting force between southern Africa and the strong economies of Egypt and Nigeria.

But in order for Africa to truly emerge as a BRIC, O'Neill acknowledges that reform is necessary. Egypt and Nigeria, as key players in the overall strength of Africa's economy, must take action to encourage business. Rather than promoting censorship, increasing transparency and education is a crucial first step to encouraging economic growth. Focusing on eradicating corruption, lowering national debt and stabilizing inflation are all key moves that must be made, particularly in these leading nations but across the continent, in order for Africa to truly achieve its potential.


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