Photo: kaysha (flickr)

As Haitians take to the streets over rising food prices and Americans fret at the gas pump, South Americans seem to be weathering the hemisphere's economic storm fairly well.

According to The Economist, on the whole, South American economies are doing better now than at any time since the 1960s, growing an average of 5 percent a year since 2004. So far, the U.S. credit crunch has had little noticeable affect on South America's economy. In fact, some investors are buying even more South American bonds than ever due to declining U.S. interest rates. And with their expanding economies and low cost of living, South America is becoming more popular for North American property investors.

In the near future, The Economist says, it's expected that the mild U.S. recession and slowing world economy will curb South America's economic growth only slightly. But some economists attribute the past years' steady growth to global economic conditions which may not be so favorable in the future. The real concern is what happens in 2009, when decreased remittances and decreased demand for exports take their toll.

Photo: Thatcher Cook for Mercy Corps

Will America's economic troubles spill over to South Asian markets?

India, because of its close economic ties to the U.S., could get caught up in the downdraft. Rising inflation rates are causing the country's conservative commercial bankers to squirm in a country usually considered the poster child for modernization. India ships more of its goods to the U.S. than to any other country — so if Americans curtail their spending in an economic slowdown, Indian businesses could lose big.

How can India maintain its high rate of economic growth despite the U.S. slowdown?

The Brookings Institute calls for India’s government to economically reform by addressing its major inefficiencies in connecting the rural poor with the mainstream economies. BusinessWeek points out the need for reforms in agriculture, infrastructure, health care and education. But it adds that reform "is the last thing" on the mind of India's ruling Congress Party.

For the first time in more than five years, the average household income is declining in the U.S., reports the Financial Times.

Joseph Stiglitz, John Edwards and anti-war group MoveOn.org all blame the Iraq War for triggering a U.S. recession. While the connection is politically attractive to some, President Bush — and even some of his critics — argue that this simply isn't true.

When President Bush said last week that "spending in the war might help with jobs" and that "this economy is down because we built too many houses and the economy’s adjusting," even well-known Bush-basher Paul Krugman had to concede the point. In a blog post, he wrote, "Hate to say this, but he’s right."

The BBC is featuring a diary written by a woman living and working in Zimbabwe in which she describes the challenges of living a normal day-to-day life in the face of economic crisis and rampant inflation.

Today the Christian Science Monitor posted an article about how the declining dollar is affecting migrant workers in the United States:

Across the US, the falling dollar value has sent ripples through immigrant communities that send money to family overseas. As some currencies for developing countries have risen substantially against the dollar, many immigrant workers are increasing their workweek by up to 20 hours or taking second jobs. If the dollar's slide continues, the US may become less attractive to migrant workers, analysts say.

Most assume that China will experience a significant downturn in growth as a result of the recent scare in the US economy. But on January 3rd The Economist published an article suggesting that growth of GDP in China is less dependent on the export of cheap goods to Western consumer markets.

The headline ratio of exports to GDP is very misleading. It compares apples and oranges: exports are measured as gross revenue while GDP is measured in value-added terms…
Once these adjustments are made, Mr Anderson reckons that the "true" export share is just under 10% of GDP. That makes China slightly more exposed to exports than Japan, but nowhere near as export-led as Taiwan or Singapore.

Today an International Herald Tribune article asks, "is economic history about to change course?" As power transfers from the west to the east, many economists are worried about a protectionist backlash by governments in attempt to regain control.

"Economic theory tells us that globalization is a win-win, but it isn't, at least not in the West," Roach said. "The theory was written for another era. We have to ask some hard questions about unfettered capitalism. We need a new script."

The risk is that Western governments, mindful of the growing backlash among voters, will be tempted to rewrite the script by engaging in old and new forms of protectionism.

Many are predicting 2008 to be a year for the economic history books.

The Council on Foreign Relations takes a look at the possibility of a global recession.

As many indices mark the worst stock market losses since 9/11, India suspends trading and Japan marks the worst two-day losses in 17 years, analysts are talking global recession (and its implications for the US).

The Council on Foreign Relations' Lee Hudson Teslik says that this recession (or mild economic turn down) could have implications for a number of US policies, ranging from immigration to possibly increasingly protectionist economic policies as US job losses cause citizens to feel the squeeze-- and subsequently pressure politicians.

However, can emerging markets counterbalance the fear and uncertainty present in the US and across Asia?

Globally, economists see a silver lining in the developing world. Emerging markets in East Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, Eastern Europe, and even Africa have seen rapid recent growth (Economist),
and analysts hope growing consumption in these regions might offset declines in the United States. Either way, analyst Zakaria and others argue, a downturn need not bring a permanent loss of power for Washington, if policymakers reclaim the “open and expansive” attitude with which they once embraced the world.