Read the other Global Envision blogs from Hong Kong:
December 12, 2005 – Why Free Trade?
December 13, 2005 – Opening Session
December 13, 2005 – Aid For Trade
December 13, 2005 – Food Fight
December 14, 2005 – Results of Day One of WTO Negotiations in Hong Kong
December 16, 2005 – The Word of the Day is Deadlock
December 17, 2005 – Wrapping Up in Hong Kong

For observers like me, the press conferences here are the most informative use of time - and often the most entertaining. It's where high-level ministers talk about what's going on at these meetings. Or, more accurately, what they think is going on, since at many of these press events, the media seems to know more than the ministers. This is understandable, since for the most part the ministers are participating in nonstop meetings and aren't usually briefed before a microphone is thrust at them. Members of the press, on the other hand, dart from conference to conference picking up bits of information, which they sometimes use to pit one group against another.

Minister Rachid opened by making clear that the Doha Round will be judged on its development content, not on its mere completion.

The visual media at the WTO are experts at close-up camera shots that can distort the true picture of events. I've walked with and through protesters at various times, and witnessed one or two small scuffles, mainly between Korean farmers and Hong Kong security guards. But the same events, seen on the television news in my hotel room, look almost like full-blown riots. Someone insightfully compared it to scenes in Baghdad when the statues of Saddam came tumbling down. There may not have been more than a few passersby in the area, but if the camera only pans a small area, it can make it seem like an outright revolution.

From my perspective, the WTO protests have not been disruptive or violent. Not this year, anyway. That's because of a combination of factors: one, many of the protesters have a role to play in the Convention Center with their dual-track advocacy strategies (see my December 13, 2005 – Opening Session blog); and two, the Hong Kong authorities simply will not allow things to get out of hand.

Within the Convention Center, demonstrators have disrupted a few press conferences. Today some NGO representatives were singing and chanting outside of briefing rooms; in other cases NGO members commandeered microphones to make statements. In the past, this sort of action would have resulted in that NGO's ejection from all press events. But here the delegates simply interrupt the commentators and keep going. In fact, the journalists seem more upset by these outbursts than the delegates. They say it affects their ability to gather the information they need and meet their deadlines. So, curiously, the journalists may be the ones who will dictate whether or not the NGOs will be welcomed to the briefings. For tomorrow, at least, we are still invited.

G90 Leaders Speak

The dignitaries at these press conferences have long and greatly esteemed titles. There's The Honorable Madun Dulloo, ACP Group Coordinator and Minister of Foreign Affairs, International Trade and Cooperation of Mauritius. And The Honorable Mohammed Rachid, African Union Coordinator and Minister for Trade and Industry Egypt. But as the meetings wear on, the officials are more likely to go by names such as James (Minister James Mahsuni of Rwanda) and Deepak (Minister Deepak Patel of Zambia). They speak quickly and candidly, and they do not seem quite as tired as their staff members, who are held up by the walls they lean against.

At the daily G90 press conference, Minister Rachid opened by making clear that the Doha round will be judged on its development content, not on its mere completion. He clarified that market access is only one component of a development deal, along with what is known around here as "preference erosion," which I explain below. What he is getting at is that in the Doha round, many issues are inextricably linked. In my mind, the two examples he provided are especially so.

Let’s say that there is a general across-the-board tariff reduction negotiated here in Hong Kong, so that a levy that used to be imposed on a particular import is now gone. On its face, this appears to be a boon to exporters, including developing countries. Their products are now more appealing to buyers in other countries; their access to markets abroad is enhanced.

In some cases, the costs of losing a preference may exceed the benefits derived from gaining more market access elsewhere, resulting in a net loss for some developing countries.

But there's also a cost if they've previously negotiated a low-tariff deal with a certain country that is a destination for their products. This is what's known as preference erosion. For example, India might be able to sell a lot of sugar to the EU because, as a result of bilaterial negotiations, the EU has agreed to levy a much smaller tariff on sugar coming from India than sugar coming from Brazil or Honduras or some other country. As a result, India is sitting pretty atop the EU sugar market. But India's advantage in that market goes away if sugar tariffs are reduced for all sugar imports to EU, regardless of their country of origin. In this example, maybe Brazil or Honduras will have the better price and get the lion’s share of the market. In some cases, the costs of losing a preference may exceed the benefits derived from gaining more market access elsewhere, resulting in a net loss for some developing countries.

Every single issue being negotiated in Hong Kong is at least this complex. In this particular case, developing countries propose financial compensation as a way to soften the blow, but how much and to whom is a major sticking point. I keep watching the negotiators in the hallways to see if they have charts and graphs that let them see, “If you select A, then B will occur in your economy." There are simply so many possibilities that I can't imagine how they can keep them all straight.

The G90 wants the overall development package and not merely a few parts of it. An overall development package, integrated into the multilateral trading system, is what will help the poor countries the most. The NGO community widely agrees that if there is no integrated deal in Hong Kong, it is better for the poor countries to reject any kind of itemized package. It the past this might have been difficult due to pressures put on them by rich countries, but here in Hong Kong the developing countries seem to have quite a bit of solidarity. However, considering the complexities of the issues, and how far away the delegations are from reaching any basic agreement, any conclusion seems a long way off.

As in each of these press conferences, there were some amusing moments. Mauritania's Dulloo said the meetings “started out with the Punch-and-Judy show between the EU and U.S.” and have gotten slightly better, but that it is still “hard to distinguish between the wheat and the chaff.” Minister Patel chimed in with, “We are not interested in the continuation of the disingenuous use of the English language. Words such as stable and secure need to be replaced by how and when. The English language has a full A-to-Z on vagueness.”

Outside the Convention Center
Just in from the Mercy Corps Roving Reporter on the Streets on the Streets of Hong Kong, Laura Guimond, the agency's Director of External Affairs

The Global Call to Action against Poverty (GCAP) offered WTO delegates a massive fortune cookie today. GCAP representatives and Fair Trade producers from 15 nations, including Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Sudan, gathered for the event colorfully garbed in traditional dress. Amid a bevy of international journalists, they broke open the cookie to reveal the fortune they hope will be the outcome of this conference: "Trade Justice Now. End Poverty." Kumi Naidoo, GCAP chair, expressed some dismay that there has been little progress at these talks. Perhaps, he says, there is a false sense of calm, and much will be accomplished over the next few days. Hope springs eternal here in Hong Kong.

Roles of the Negotiators

All day and into the night, negotiators go from meeting to meeting talking trade. There are so many negotiators in each country delegation that in most cases, each person works only on one particular trade topic. This used to put developing countries at a major disadvantage because they didn't have the resources to hire experts on all of these topics. But today the playing field has leveled with the help of funds from developed countries and intense assistance from NGOs and consultation groups, as well as alliances such as the G20, G33 and G90. For each issue there will be one or two “open-ended negotiating sessions” each day as well as private meetings with the topic's facilitator. Each topic is assigned a trade minister to act as facilitator, someone who brings the talks on that subject matter together. His role (they're all men) also includes meeting with delegations individually and figuring out their negotiating "red lines," or dealbreakers.

Countries often proclaim they cannot possibly budge on this or that point, but behind closed doors their stances may change depending on what they can get in return. It's the facilitator's job to gather all of these good-faith pledges and try to turn them into a solution at an actual negotiating session.

Everyone seems to like the idea of the duty-free and quota-free treatment of LDCs. But some want exemptions for key sectors in their economy... and that's what is currently under discussion.

As if those meetings would not make for a busy enough day, there are plenary sessions where countries or groups state what they want, there are small group meetings based on regions, or group interests, press briefings, and at some point all the issue area point people for each country need to get together with their trade minister to make sure all details are acceptable in light of what is happening on other issues.

Closing in on an Achievement: Duty-free and Quota-free Market Access for the LDCs

In this incredibly difficult and tiring process, perhaps it's understandable that only one issue seems to be making headway. It is the proposal to provide “duty-free and quota-free market access” to the Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Some 32 of the WTO's 149 members are formally classed as LDCs. From what I can gather, quite a few of the important countries in the negotiation have already pledged 100% market access for LDCs, which means dropping all barriers and providing “duty-free and quota-free” treatment to all LDC exports. Some other WTO countries already provide completely open markets to LDCs, which undoubtedly helps move the issue along.

Everyone seems to like the idea of the duty-free and quota-free treatment of LDCs. But some want exemptions for key sectors in their economy (the Canadians, for example, want to exempt dairy products), and that's what is currently under discussion. The facilitator on this issue has spent time gathering information from each delegation, and now that all of the exemptions have emerged, the negotiators are looking for a compromise. The LDCs, of course, want no exemptions, but seem willing to compromise. One option is to have a percentage of products covered, rather than specify the exemptions. The G90 nations say they will “do some pushing and some listening; the battle lines are not pre-drawn.”

The next step is for the negotiators to move into a "text-based discussion," where they start arguing over words rather than abstract concepts. This is where the delegations really scrutinize the language to avoid loopholes and ambiguities, as well as try to insert preferential clauses. It's good news that the debate about duty-free and quota-free treatment of LDCs has gotten this far. Delegations are that much closer to moving onto other important topics.




Photo credit Laura Guimond, Mercy Corps Director of External Relations.

Blog by Erin Thomas, Managing Editor Global Envision. Erin and Laura are in Hong Kong with other global NGOs advocating for free trade policies that are fair. Please send them any comments or questions and stay tuned for the inside scoop on negotiations.

Read the other Global Envision blogs from Hong Kong:
December 12, 2005 – Why Free Trade?
December 13, 2005 – Opening Session
December 13, 2005 – Aid For Trade
December 13, 2005 – Food Fight
December 14, 2005 – Results of Day One of WTO Negotiations in Hong Kong
December 16, 2005 – The Word of the Day is Deadlock
December 17, 2005 – Wrapping Up in Hong Kong

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