Somalia

The East Africa drought: forecasting for humanitarian aid

Women in Kenya drag jerry cans of water 4 kilometers through a parched landscape. Photo by Erin Gray/Mercy Corps.
Women in Kenya drag jerry cans of water 4 kilometers through a parched landscape. Photo by Erin Gray/Mercy Corps.

How bad is the drought and famine in East Africa? Climate scientist Simon Mason elaborates in this video interview. Comparing East Africa’s situation to other drought situations, Mason highlights the dramatic impacts in a region receiving 5 to 25% of its usual expected rainfall.

With the world facing more and more severe climate-related disruptions, Mason explains some ways in which weather forecasting is being used to help humanitarian aid organizations prepare responses in the short and long term. Check out his interview here.

Alternatives to food aid can transform economies for good

Aid can restore dignity by providing choices. Photo: Miguel Samper for Mercy Corps
Aid can restore dignity by providing choices. Photo: Miguel Samper for Mercy Corps

Food aid can fill bellies, but countries hit by famine need choices, not handouts. Two new alternatives can solve longer-term problems by letting victims choose how aid gets used.

First, cash voucher programs give people choice.

UNICEF and two of its non-governmental partners implemented cash voucher fairs in 2010 that provided crucial supplies to 65,000 people displaced by violence in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Each family received 13 coupons totaling $40, which they used to purchase supplies from participating vendors.

Cash vouchers let people decide what they need, as opposed to receiving standard packages with items they might not. Having the power of choice also restores dignity and a sense of worth in a time of struggle. “Furaha!" a mother of two, Kavira Matita, exclaimed to UNICEF during a cash voucher fair, expressing joy in the Kiswahili language. "I am able to choose what is close to my heart. I am very happy to use the coupons for what I know my family needs and not be given things I won’t have much use for.” That's not all: Economically speaking, the vouchers tend to support local business rather than international ones, which can inject much-needed capital back into a struggling community and increase the impact of aid dollars.

Cash-for-work programs are another option. They hire people to participate in their own rebuilding process.

In landlocked Chad, which borders Sudan, World Concern’s cash-for-work program is already putting communities to work. One of the first projects was to dig large ponds for catching water for irrigation and animals. Other projects built low rock walls to reduce erosion on hillsides.

As in cash voucher programs, cash-for-work participants receive vouchers as payment so they can buy what their family needs. However, injecting new money into a weak economy can cause inflation. To prevent this, World Concern sets price ceilings beforehand to ensure economies aren't further destabilized.

In previous posts, Global Envision dug into cash-for-work and cash voucher programs, highlighting responses to the Haiti earthquake -- a Mercy Corps cash-for-work project, and a World Food Program cash voucher system.

Worldwide, 40 countries face food shortages, and aid delivery to these regions in crises is vital. Each country has unique needs, and they should be evaluated accordingly. As a result of the famine in the Horn of Africa, three million people in Somalia need emergency aid and more than 10 million are at risk of severe prolonged hunger or even starvation, according to The New York Times.

As the world looks for ways to deliver this aid, it should consider cash vouchers and cash-for-work programs. Both make recovery after crises and conflicts more sustainable by directly involving those affected in rebuilding their communities.

The Tricky Business of Feeding Oneself on a Dollar a Day

Over one billion people live on less than one dollar a day, according to the U.N. But what can you actually buy with a dollar?

It seems like something that would vary across countries. Luckily, the World Food Programme recently released a series of videos in which it seeks to answer that question. Country specialists in Nepal, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Haiti, Guatemala, Somalia, Kenya, and the Philippines each went to their local markets with the equivalent of about one U.S. dollar and attempted to put together a meal. Watch as Reem Nada visits a market in Alexandria, Egypt.

The shorts are entertaining, but present a rather bleak reality. Almost all of the investigators come up short nutritionally. In Nepal, Deepesh Das Shresta leaves the market holding a few small bananas and a loaf of white bread. Meat is categorically too expensive, and staying within budget means many investigators can’t purchase all of the components necessary to create the meals that are considered cultural staples. It appears that those living on less than a dollar a day are also living far below their daily caloric and nutrient requirements.

Feeding oneself on less than a dollar is tricky business under the best of circumstances. Even worse, the recent volatility of the price of staple foods such as rice has jumped three times since 2008, says the New York Times — meaning that dollar must now be stretched even further.

The rest of the videos can be found on the World Food Programme website. The videos for Ethiopia, Kenya, and the Philippines are listed separately.

Margo Conner is a senior at Lewis & Clark College in Portland, Oregon, majoring in international affairs. Read her other contributions to Global Envision.

Responding to the Global Food Crisis

By the summer of 2008, the price of rice had increased five times from the average price in 2005. Photo: Thatcher Cook for Mercy Corps
By the summer of 2008, the price of rice had increased five times from the average price in 2005. Photo: Thatcher Cook for Mercy Corps

The following post is from One Table, a Mercy Corps campaign to fight world hunger by investing in the world's women.

Today almost a billion people worldwide are unable to buy or grow enough food to avoid malnutrition. That's 120 million more than were hungry in 2006.

What happened? Basically, the world saw dramatic spikes in food prices. But there were many underlying causes of what's known as the global food crisis:

  • Drought and other climate-related problems that resulted in smaller harvests
  • Changing diets — rise of the middle class in India and China and an increased demand for food, especially meat, which requires large amounts of grain to raise
  • Diversion of crops from food production to the production of biofuels
  • High fuel prices during 2008 — if it costs more to transport food, prices go up
  • Declining investments in agricultural productivity — total agriculture development aid to poor countries plunged from $8 billion in 1984 to $3.4 billion in 2004. At the same time, the developing world's cities have been ballooning with people who do not grow any of their food
  • Export bans and restrictions last year in several major grain-producing countries like China as governments sought to lower food prices for their own citizens, with the result of reducing the global supply on hand.

While food prices have come down from their highs of 2008, they remain substantially above historic levels. Many economists feel this trend, which most severely affects those who can least afford it, is likely to continue for some time.

The economic, health and societal costs of the global food crisis have been severe. One of the first things Mercy Corps did to figure out how and where to direct our efforts was to survey the communities where we work. We discovered that within communities Mercy Corps serves, roughly 70 percent of income is spent on food, and 80 percent of the population had been affected by rising food prices over the past year. The survey also confirmed something we already suspected: that families were coping with higher prices by eating fewer meals, selling off household belongings, going into debt and removing children from school so that they can work.

In addition to being a record year for food prices, it's also been a record year for our food security team, allowing Mercy Corps to aggressively respond to this crisis. We now have 17 programs in 13 countries designed specifically to respond to this on-going problem. Through support from donors including USAID, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Gap Foundation, the Hunger Site, and private individuals, our Food Crisis Response employs a strategy designed to ensure that the groundwork for increased prosperity in the future is laid — even while addressing the immediate problem of accessing sufficient food.

Food distributions, much of which are specifically targeted to improve child nutrition, are taking place in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Zimbabwe. Meanwhile, in the Central African Republic, India, Indonesia, Liberia, Nepal, Niger, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Uganda and again Zimbabwe, Mercy Corps is helping hungry households to access food by providing employment opportunities, agricultural training and inputs (such as seeds and tools), and helping people establish and grow small businesses.

Combined, these programs are reaching almost 1.5 million individuals who have been directly impacted by higher food prices. Overall, Mercy Corps’ Crisis Response will lead to a sustainable increase in income for these people, leading in turn to greater food security over the long-term.

Piracy Boosts Somali Economy

Pirates stock up on goats, cigarettes and other supplies when they return to shore. Photo: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/charlesfred/62784891/">CharlesFred (flickr)</a>
Pirates stock up on goats, cigarettes and other supplies when they return to shore. Photo: CharlesFred (flickr)

Piracy along Somalia's coastline represents a very lucrative business — as the pirates collectively earned an estimated $150 million in 2008 — but what is piracy's effect on Somalia's economy?

Somalia's economy is in a fairly grim state. An estimated 73.4 percent of the country's population lives in general or extreme poverty and the average Somali earns only $600 per year, making Somalia one of the poorest countries in the world.

Fishing used to be one of Somalia's most profitable industries. But as piracy has increased — there were roughly 100 attacks in 2008 — the New York Times reports that foreign ships have become reluctant to brave the waters surrounding Somalia's coastline to buy fish and other exports. The amount of goods coming into Somalia, including aid, has also declined.

Pirate money has also skewed prices. In the town of Garowe, near Somalia's central coast, resident Mohamed Hassan told the BBC that "piracy has a negative impact on several aspects of our life," including a financial one:

They have made life more expensive for ordinary people because they "pump huge amounts of U.S. dollars" into the local economy which results in fluctuations in the exchange rate.

On the other hand, pirates are putting wealth back into the Somali economy — an estimated $1 million to $2 million is made from each captured ship.

Whenever a ship is seized, pirates stock up on sheep, goats, water, fuel, rice, spaghetti, milk, and cigarettes in towns up and down Somalia’s coast. Sugule Dahir, a local shop owner in Eyl, a town just off the coast in central eastern Somalia, feels the incoming money has had a positive impact. He tells ABC News that, because of the pirates, more businesses are beginning to emerge and the general public seems better off. "There are more shops and business is booming because of the piracy. Internet cafes and telephone shops have opened, and people are just happier than before."

Government officials are getting a fair sum of pirate money as well. By allowing the pirates to work in controlled areas, the regional Puntland Government is given shares of the pirate's earnings. About 30 percent of the collected ransom goes directly to government officials, Farah Ismael Eid, a captured pirate, tells Time.

Some Somalis are worse off because of piracy. But it's clear that the pirates do spread the wealth.

Good News (By Somalia's Standards)

The U.S. Navy comes to the assistance of a Taiwanese-flagged fishing trawler been seized by pirates off the coast of Somalia. Photo: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/opendemocracy/3055910885/">Open Democracy (flickr)</a>
The U.S. Navy comes to the assistance of a Taiwanese-flagged fishing trawler been seized by pirates off the coast of Somalia. Photo: Open Democracy (flickr)

After 18 years of civil war, some good news is finally coming from Somalia. The recent election of Sharif Ahmed, a moderate Islamist, as Somalia’s new president brings the country a chance for peace and stability. But the country faces enormous problems and President Ahmed has a mammoth task on his hands — both domestically and internationally.

Perhaps the biggest challenges lay within Somalia’s own borders. Considered as a failed state since the early 1990s, Somalia has seen its worst spate of violence in decades over the past two years: Ethiopian troops invaded the country, at least 10,000 Somalis have been killed and more than one million displaced.

Much of this bloodshed and displacement comes from the poor security conditions and widespread lawlessness spawned by fighting between rival warlords, clans and other armed groups. This lack of national security poses a huge problem for Ahmed’s nascent presidency: Somalia’s two main insurgent groups, Hezbul Islam and Al-Shabaab, control “much of the south of the country” and refuse to recognize the election. Getting Somalia’s clans behind a centralized government is a task that previous Somali leaders have failed to meet.

In a country that has no almost running water or electricity, Ahmed also has numerous humanitarian challenges. The Red Cross considers Somalia's food crisis to be one of the worst in the world. And the country's infrastructure, already-limited agricultural systems and market linkages, has been severely damaged during the continuous internal conflict of past decades. As a result, more than a third of the population depends on food aid. Health care has also been decimated: Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital city of 3.6 million people has only two or three hospitals that barely operate at all.

Providing this critical food and health care will be very difficult, however, until some form of security is established. The government must find a way to ensure that youth have the education and economic opportunities they need so that they have less incentive to take a $15-a-day paycheck to join one of armed groups. But the already-precarious education gap is widening: at least 81 percent of Somalia's population is now illiterate — the highest such rate in Africa — and only 17 percent of Somali children go to school.

A moderate new government headed by an energetic and idealistic president has succeeded in giving Somalis hope — but delivering results is crucial to showing the country’s embattled population that their government is actually making a difference.

Economic Crisis Fueling Social Unrest

Police in Reykjavik, Iceland after a violent protest turned into a riot on January 20. Photo: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/finnurmalmquist/3215651009/">finnur.malmquist (flickr)</a>
Police in Reykjavik, Iceland after a violent protest turned into a riot on January 20. Photo: finnur.malmquist (flickr)

It’s a lot worse than just about everyone thought. By some estimates, the economic crisis could cost 50 million jobs worldwide. That's a catastrophic number, and even their potential loss is already fueling some discontent and sounding alarms.

Worried about the ripple effects of widespread unemployment, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency recently added the state of the economy to the agency's list of top security threats. Retired Admiral Dennis Blair, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, warned that "economic crises increase the risk of regime-threatening instability if they persist over a one-to-two-year period."

On the international stage, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon voiced his concern: "If not handled, today’s financial crisis will become tomorrow’s human crisis. Social unrest and political instability will grow, exacerbating all other problems."

Violent flare-ups over the economic recession and resulting unemployment are already occurring all over the globe.

In Pakistan, chronic power outages have forced many textile factories to close down for hours at a time, triggering thousands of angry protesters to set fire to the state-owned power company's office. Government cuts in Lithuania’s social programs prompted protesters to pelt the parliament building with eggs and rocks ; at least 14 people were injured and 84 detained. Chinese police officers are now undergoing special training to deal with expected social unrest over factory closings that have left millions of migrant workers out of a job.

Iceland and Latvia serve as extreme examples of the devastating consequences from the declining state of the worldwide economy: both countries’ respective governments collapsed under the pressure of the economic crisis.

However, security experts are concerned about other forms of collateral damage that extend beyond protests. Bruno Tertrais, a strategic and security expert at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris tells Time Magazine that he believes the biggest threat to international security is "the collapse of regimes vital to maintaining international order." Tertrais cites Somalia as an example — a place where, after the collapse of its government, piracy has gained a foothold and severely disrupted shipping routes along the horn of Africa.

Extreme poverty has always posed a threat, especially in the world’s emerging economies. However, the breadth and force of the current global economic crisis poses a threat to all nations, whether rich or poor.

Pirates Plunder Consumers?

The Saudi-owned oil tanker MV Sirius Star is shown at anchor on November 19, 2008, off the coast of Somalia. Photo: <a href="http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/pictures/WAS04.htm">William S. Stevens/Reuters, courtesy of Alertnet.org</a>
The Saudi-owned oil tanker MV Sirius Star is shown at anchor on November 19, 2008, off the coast of Somalia. Photo: William S. Stevens/Reuters, courtesy of Alertnet.org

Ahoy, consumers. Beware of yer pocketbooks. Pirate attacks off the coast of Somalia are up 75 percent this year, threatening price hikes for everything from the gas in your car to the shoes on your feet.

The price of oil increased this week after Somali pirates hijacked a Saudi oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden. British researcher and author Roger Middleton says Asian exporters may be forced to ship their goods the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope to reach European and American shores.

The longer route would add up to three weeks to the delivery of goods from Asia and of oil and gas from the Middle East to European markets. Someone will have to pay for that extra time – very probably the consumer. For Europe and the eastern seaboard of America, this inflation is a real possibility.

The brashness of these modern-day pirates has also forced people to rethink their romantic, Disneyesque notions about pirates — and how desperate the Somali people truly are.

The Hungry Horn

Millions are on the edge of starvation in the Horn of Africa due in part to severe drought. Photo: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/faugusto/73577336/">Filipe Moreira (flickr)</a>
Millions are on the edge of starvation in the Horn of Africa due in part to severe drought. Photo: Filipe Moreira (flickr)

Somalia and Ethiopia are hovering at the edge of famine.

The Washington Post reported on the crisis in the “hungry horn” of Africa last week. In Somalia, U.N. officials predict that half of the population, about 3.5 million people, will need food aid. The New York Times explains the hunger is driven by rampant political insecurity, spikes in global food prices, devaluation of the local currency, and a severe drought.

The World Food Program is struggling to keep up, having already doubled the amount of food it distributes in Somalia and needing an additional 369,000 metric tons of food in Ethiopa. But Doctors Without Borders, a medical aid organization, says the situation just keeps getting worse as cereal prices in the Horn in the last year surged by as much as 375 percent. To make things worse, the drought has killed of most livestock, forcing formerly self-sufficient people to wait in line for food aid.

The next rainy season isn’t due till October, and the wells and watering holes that the people and animals depend on during the dry season are already drying up. Even the camels are hard pressed to survive.

Mercy Corps' country director in Somalia says "It's a life or death situation right now." A 72-year-old herder says it's "the worst I've ever seen."

International Medical Corps, another international medical aid organization in Somalia, is predicting grave starvation risks, with a recent 400 percent rise in the number of severely malnourished young children.

And the current drought — and its problems — are probably here to stay. Researchers have discovered that global warming is drying out the Horn of Africa — and it's happening much faster than anyone anticipated.

What will happen when current drought becomes a permanent shift to desert conditions? Somalia is only the first. Ethiopia is soon to follow.

Whether it is Somalia’s food crisis, the multi-year drought in Australia, or flooding in the American bread basket, climate change is going to vastly affect the world’s food markets.


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Social responsibility and a new world order

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Just before the New Year, the London-based Center for Economics and Business Research announced that Brazil had overtaken the United Kingdom as the world’s sixth largest economy. Furthermore, it predicted that by 2020, India and Russia will also have overtaken all the European economic powers.

Aid for trade policy rears its ugly head

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The UK government's dismay at not being granted the contract for Typhoon fighter jets in India is an indication that its controversial aid for trade policy is still very much alive.

Liberia's battle to put the lights back on

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Ellen Johnson Sirleaf has set ambitious targets to restore the country's electricity supply. But will it meet them by 2015?

As Africa's consumers rise, so does inequality

Yale Global Online - Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:17
Kenya struggles to spread the wealth from rapid growth.

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