Archive - Jul 9, 2008
New Take On Temperature
No global temperature change for ten years sounds too good to be true.
A new study by German researchers suggests that natural climate cycles will limit temperature increases for the next decade. But don’t forget about global warming yet.
The researchers base these predictions on a computer model they developed after the natural cycle of ocean temperatures called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO is closely linked to currents bringing tropical heat north, and appears to occur every 60 to 70 years.
But researcher Noel Keenlyside expects manmade global warming to raise temperatures to the upper limits of this natural cycle.
The research report emphasized that even if the researchers' model proves correct, the report does not mean global warming and the drastic higher temperatures projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and many other institutions are wrong. After about 15 years, the group expects temperatures to once again rise significantly.
And it's not all about temperature. Another benefit of this new understanding of the AMO is the ability to better predict weather patterns controlled by the currents.
The researchers themselves say that the value of their research is predicting temperature and precipitation for the next ten years with certainty. The economic impact of this information will likely be significant, aiding crop planning, storm preparation, and emergency responses.
This news may help governments to stay on track reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as well as protect citizens from weather catastrophes.
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