Although Cuba's new leader says he will continue to run the country under a socialist framework, economic changes may soon be underway.

According to The Economist:

In his speech, Raúl also gave broad hints of economic changes. He recalled a commitment by Fidel in 2005 gradually to revalue the peso. Since many prices are set in hard currency, that is essential if wages are to rise above their average of $20 a month. This would take time, he said, but would involve moving away from the state-run rationing system and taking more account of wages and prices. That amounts to a move towards market mechanisms. And he praised decentralisation.

Some predict that Cuba will try to mimic progress made in Vietnam in Cuba by embracing markets while still adhering to the concept of socialism. This would be a substantial change for Cuban economic policy.

Photo: Shirine Bakhat/Mercy Corps

You would think that female access to education within one country would be roughly the same. Not so for Afghani girls trying to get ahead.

Radio Free Europe explores the deep inadequacies in education offered to female Afghani students. Educational opportunities are vastly different for female students in northern provinces and their female counterparts in southern Afghanistan.

The problem emerges not only from a lack of funds, but increasing lack of security due to the Taliban's presence in the south. Schools have been burned down by members of the Taliban and female teachers terrorized or killed.

The connection between education, female economic empowerment and poverty alleviation is essential and the growing inability of female students in the south to access safe educational opportunities worrisome.

Read the article and also check out what Mercy Corps is doing in Afghanistan.

Photo: Antonis Shen (flickr)

If salaries are increasing, do people really care about democracy? Today's Economist takes an in depth look at what Putin has really done for the Russian economy.

When asked by a foreign journalist about the lack of political competition and dialog, Putin responded: “The salaries here are going up by 16 percent. There's the answer to your question.” According to this article, Putin cannot fairly claim to be the main cause of this economic success.

The rapid growth is not meeting Russia's full potential and simultaneously trapping them into a dangerous dependency on energy. The economic growth has also been accompanied by rampant corruption. Are you wondering which country equals Russia in corruption levels? Togo. Despite this fact, foreign capital and investment continues to rise at a pace that would be unheard of for that small African nation.

The share of oil and gas in Russia's GDP has increased, according to the Institute of Economic Analysis, from 12.7 percent in 1999 to 31.6 percent in 2007. Natural resources account for 80 percent of exports. Like a powerful drug, oil money has masked the pain caused to the Russian economy by the Kremlin. But the disease remains.

To appreciate the impact oil prices have on the economy, compare real GDP growth of about 7 percent with growth measured in international prices. In dollar terms, says Rory MacFarquhar of Goldman Sachs, Russia's economy has grown on average by 27 percent a year, the fastest of any big economy since 2000. The flow of petrodollars is fanning a massive consumption boom, making Russia the sixth-biggest market in Europe. Disposable incomes (and retail trade) have been growing twice as fast as GDP.

The problem, says Peter Aven, the head of Alfa Bank, is that Russia has failed to convert the oil stimulus into domestic production. Imports are growing much faster than manufacturing. The rapid real appreciation of the rouble is hurting Russia's producers, and many goods are of poor quality. This is why Algeria says it wants to return 15 military jets it purchased from Russia.

The BBC takes a look at the contrast between India's high rate of economic growth and the widespread poverty that continues to plague the country. Though India has become a major global player in information technology, some are worried this high-tech development will only lead to "silicon bubbles" that do little to improve conditions for the Indian poor. Anand Mahindra, managing director of one of India's largest conglomerates, disagrees:

"The IT sector was a kicker to growth," he says. "Its impact was psychological. It signalled to the world that India was much more than its old historical stereotypes. It suddenly in an exaggerated manner, if you ask me, made the world think that every Indian was smart and could fix their computers. But that helped entrepreneurs in India from all industry segments, because it gave them a more receptive environment in which to do business."

Food distribution line. Photo: L. Boscardi/UNHCR

The UN is preparing plans to ration its food aid to people in need if new donations don't provide more money soon, according to an article in the Financial Times this week. Rising global food prices are putting serious pressures on the World Food Program (WFP)'s budget, to the tune of several million dollars each week.

"The WFP crisis talks come as the body sees the emergence of a "new area of hunger" in developing countries where even middle-class, urban people are being "priced out of the food market" because of rising food prices.

The warning suggests that the price jump in agricultural commodities - such as wheat, corn, rice and soyabeans - is having a wider impact than thought, hitting countries that have previously largely escaped hunger."

It is not just the UN that will have to ration its food aid. Countries like Egypt and Pakistan are reinstating or strengthening rationing systems for the first time in decades. Unfortunately, the crisis will be getting worse in the short term. According to the US Department of Agriculture "high agricultural commodities prices [will] continue for at least the next two to three years."

Photo: dziner (flickr)

Like all policy choices, the decision of many developed nations to pursue greater conversion to ethanol and biodiesel has consequences. But who will pay the costs associated with the shift from oil to biofuels? According to the World Politics Review, it is the world’s poor who are going to suffer the most from the negative effects of the biofuel craze.

With current technology, almost all of the biofuel produced today has to be made from corn or soybeans. Though other sources may be able to be used in the future, the use of crops for fuel rather than food has already taken a huge toll on the world’s commodity markets. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that global food prices have increased by almost 40 percent in the last year, after a 14 percent increase in 2006. Many countries have introduced price controls on staple foods, and food shortages have caused protests in Pakistan and Indonesia.

Photo: Cassandra Nelson/Mercy Corps

South Sudan is so far away and so deep in the shadow of the crisis in Darfur that few would give the region a second thought. It borders one of continental Africa’s largest oil reserves but is one of the poorest regions in the world as a result of the two decades’ long civil war, waged between North and South Sudan. The war ended in 2005 with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), but Sudan’s President Omar Al-Bashir, who is from the North, is slowly pulling out of that agreement. His armies, without reason or provocation, have begun creating conflicts in the south. New York Times journalist Nicholas Kristof recently visited the region, where he examined signs of Khartoum's renewed interest in controlling the area through violence if necessary.

We think about Darfur as almost synonymous with Sudan these days, forgetting other parts of the country, where the conflict has left communities destitute and vulnerable. The limited media coverage tends to only focus on Darfur and the hope for successful execution of the CPA to resolve the crisis.

What we don't hear is that what is brewing in South Sudan might easily lead to the reawakening of a deep conflict that haunted the country for decades.

Kristof writes;

"Although people speak of renewed 'war,' the violence is more likely to resemble what happens in a stockyard. If it is like the last time, government-sponsored Arab militias will slaughter civilians so as to terrorize local populations and drive them far away from oil wells."

With such strong words, I expected to find coverage of this issue with ease – and was surprise to note that, except for a briefing published in March by International Crisis Group, [a few weeks after my original post], the growing violence in South Sudan is not being reported. I almost want to believe that Mr. Kristof has made a mistake – except he was there, not me.

As a result of a huge surplus of petrodollars in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), "a secretive, government-controlled investment fund is helping to shift the balance of power in the financial world," explains the World Business section of today’s New York Times. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is investing in markets in every region of the world and quietly playing a role in the success, or failure, of companies on a global scale.

Sovereign funds are state-owned funds that manage state savings for the purpose of investment. Basically, they are pools of money governments use to invest for profit, and, generally, these investments are made in foreign companies. For a more in-depth explanation, see the Council on Foreign Relations' Sovereign Wealth Funds fact-sheet.

Photo: JohnMMM (Flickr)

Typically, the discovery of “black gold” in African countries has led to conflict over land and overwhelms governments with more revenue than can be effectively managed. Brutal secessionist conflicts have been taking place for years in countries rich with oil, including Sudan, Nigeria and Angola. Ghana hopes to buck the trend. The country is one of the most stable on the continent and responsible development of its oil industry can provide a good model for other African nations.

"There’s no reason that oil should be a curse,” one government official told Financial Times, which recently published a special report on Africa's fossil-fuel resources. “We want to make sure we follow the example of countries like Canada or Norway who’ve used oil to their benefit."

Why can’t African countries – or any developing country, for that matter – use newfound oil wealth to raise living standards for all citizens? For starters, the oil market is vulnerable to price shocks, and the centralized revenues are susceptible to theft. Dependency on oil as a primary commodity can discourage economic diversification.

Another critical issue is the exploitation of indigenous populations near extraction sites, a prime example being the abuses felt by those in the Niger delta region of Nigeria. Governments frequently overlook the fundamental needs of communities adjacent to oil drilling sites. Ghana’s new oil find may not be very beneficial to communities that fish the waters where the discovery was made.

Can Ghana avoid these pitfalls? The government says it plans to use the oil wealth to turn Ghana into "a middle-income country" by 2015, and to invest in infrastructure, health care and education. That's reminiscent of rhetoric used by officials in Nigeria, Angola, and the Congo — all are failing to follow through with those promises.

Can Ghana succeed in turning the “black gold” into a blessing for its citizens, or will oil once again prove a curse?

Here's 60 million Zim Dollars, roughly the equivalent of US $400 (August 2007). Photo: GrahamKing (flickr)

Imagine a place where you would rather use a $10,000 bill to light a fire than actually try to purchase goods.

Today, The Washington Post provides an excellent look at the Black Market in Zimbabwe, a country where 80 percent of the population lives in poverty. The article puts a very real face on the black market industry as Craig Timberg follows a trader around for the day.

The economy began its free fall when landless black peasants invaded white-owned farms in 2000 with the support of Mugabe, who said the redistribution would undo colonial inequities. The often violent process decimated the country's most crucial industry and biggest earner of foreign exchange, triggering hyperinflation that has rarely paused on its staggering ascent.

Today, it's not unusual to see a wadded-up 10,000-dollar bill lying on Harare's filthy sidewalks. Though officially worth about 33 cents in U.S. currency, the real value is about one-tenth of a penny.

The BBC reports that the Brazilian government has unveiled a new anti-poverty plan that, if approved, will provide millions of dollars towards the creation of jobs for 24 million people and improve basic infrastructure - like electricity - to some of the poorest areas of Brazil.

Some feel the plan is related to upcoming municipal elections this year and has been heavily attacked by critics. Regardless, creation of 24 million jobs is much needed in a country where 30 percent of the population lives under the poverty line.

Photo:whiffer (flickr)

In the latest issue of Foreign Affairs, the former chief economist of the Venezuelan National Assembly argues that Chavez has failed to live up to his pro-poor rhetoric, and that the policies of his administration have hurt both the national economy and the Venezuelan poor. While many observers outside Venezuela believe that Chavez has made the welfare of the poor his highest priority, the author notes that neither official statistics nor independent assessments show any evidence that Chavez's policies have helped combat poverty in Venezuela.