Archive - Nov 14, 2008

Date

Lumbering Toward Economic Liberalism

Last month India's largest airliner by passenger volume, Jet Airways, decided to cut 1,900 jobs to "secure its economic health" in an industry that's expected to lose $2 billion in the 12-month period that began last April.

Then, under intense political pressure from New Dehli, Jet reversed its decision.

Does this turn of events cast fresh doubt on whether India can cast aside vestiges of its once-socialist economy, as the Wall Street Journal opines? Or is it simply the not-so-surprising result of the government's "mindless deregulation" of the airline industry in the last decade, as Rediff commentator Praful Bidwai asserts?

India's indomitable economic advance has always proceeded in fits and starts. That's why it's considered the lumbering elephant to China's fiercely fast tiger. Whatever your take on this drama, it is certainly true to form.

The Girl Effect

Every girl in the world needs an education.

I could present you with stat after stat explaining why that's important — how a girl who attends school for at least seven years marries later and has fewer children, or how an extra year of primary school increases eventual wages by 10 to 20 percent, and how with an extra year of secondary school it's more like 15 to 25 percent.

But if this powerful video from the Nike and NoVo Foundations doesn't convince you, you need to have your head examined.

A Clash of Health and Wealth

Life expectancy in Kerala is 73 years &mdash; which is comparable with Europe and the U.S. Photo: <a href="http://flickr.com/photos/worldbank/2244551112/">© World Bank / Curt Carnemark (flickr)</a>
Life expectancy in Kerala is 73 years — which is comparable with Europe and the U.S. Photo: © World Bank / Curt Carnemark (flickr)

India's southern state of Kerala has received international attention not only for its beaches and temples, but also for statistics that suggest people of limited means can live long, healthy lives. (Its life expectancy of over 73 years puts it on par with some of the world's most advanced countries.)

But Kerala's rising affluence has challenged the stability of a once-thriving public health system. Indications are that wealthy patients are increasingly turning to high-tech, private clinics for care, putting the public health care system at risk.

PRI’s The World reports an emergence of “lifestyle ailments” like diabetes and heart disease in Kerala, a tropical state on India’s southwestern coast with 18 million residents. Kerala's per capita annual income is a mere $300, but like the whole of India, recent economic growth has meant a booming middle class. At the same time, its population, according to the program, has become less active and more prone to obesity.

The demand for specialized care for a new set of health issues has put a strain on Kerala’s public health system. Public hospitals are losing experienced doctors to better-paying jobs at private clinics.

“People no longer see the government health institution as a place where they would go by choice,” explains Dr. V Raman Kutty at Kerala’s Centre for Health Science Studies. “They would go only if there is no other option.”

As the gap between rich and poor widens, is Kerala’s exceptional status sustainable? Academics will wrestle with that question in January, when the state's Centre for Development Studies hosts a conference on Challenges of Human Development in India. "The pervasive social and economic inequalities," reads the conference announcement, "are a matter of concern for India."

What will become of American Automakers?

Dark clouds over a dealership. Flickr: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/mappix/1639516696/">Micah A. Ponce</a>
Dark clouds over a dealership. Flickr: Micah A. Ponce

On Monday, the U.S. Senate will take up a bill to extend $25 billion in emergency loans to the auto industry.

The numbers are grim. In the most recent quarter, General Motors lost $6.9 billion dollars, which is over $3 million an hour. Compared to GM, Ford's loss for the quarter was "only" $3 billion. GM sales are down almost 50 percent from a year ago, their U.S. market share is down to 22 percent (from over 40 percent in the 80's), and its stock is trading at a lower price today than it did in 1946. CEO Rick Wagoner warns that GM will run out of cash in early 2009 if something drastic doesn't happen soon.

What to do? One group, including NY Times columnist David Brooks, argues that the government should let them fail. As one Republican senator put it, "I do not support the use of U.S. taxpayer dollars to reward the mismanagement of Detroit-based auto manufacturers in such a way that allows them to continue and compound their ongoing mistakes." But with the economy likely in recession, as many as three million lost jobs is not easy to stomach for even the most dedicated free marketeer.

Many opinion makers identify the automakers' biggest problem as being expensive union contracts and pension liabilities. These are what makes it impossible for Detroit to make a profit building high-quality small cars — the sector with the most resilient sales.

Honda, Toyota, and Nissan all build small cars in North America profitably, but they run non-union factories. So while the employees in those factories are paid wages competitive with Detroit run plants, they have medical plans that are much more austere (think higher co-pays) than those provided to United Auto Workers members and 401K retirement plans rather than more expensive guaranteed-benefit pensions.

If that diagnosis is correct, then an important question is this: Will the Democrats who control Congress or the new Obama administration, whose political campaigns received significant financing from labor unions, have the courage to stand up to the UAW and ask them to renegotiate their contracts with the Detroit Three?

Only one thing seems certain right now: This is a story worth paying careful attention to the next few months, not only for its immediate relevance to the U.S. economy, but also for its potential to affect global trade and labor relations both domestically and abroad for years to come.


Stories We're Watching

As Growth Slows, India Awakens to Need for Foreign Investment

International Herald Tribune - Wed, 02/08/2012 - 08:26
India’s central bank and economic analysts predict that growth will fall sharply to 7 percent this fiscal year and remain sluggish.

Social responsibility and a new world order

Washington Post - Innovations - Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:56
Just before the New Year, the London-based Center for Economics and Business Research announced that Brazil had overtaken the United Kingdom as the world’s sixth largest economy. Furthermore, it predicted that by 2020, India and Russia will also have overtaken all the European economic powers.

Aid for trade policy rears its ugly head

The Guardian's Poverty Matters - Mon, 02/06/2012 - 01:41
The UK government's dismay at not being granted the contract for Typhoon fighter jets in India is an indication that its controversial aid for trade policy is still very much alive.

Liberia's battle to put the lights back on

The Guardian's Poverty Matters - Sun, 02/05/2012 - 23:00
Ellen Johnson Sirleaf has set ambitious targets to restore the country's electricity supply. But will it meet them by 2015?

As Africa's consumers rise, so does inequality

Yale Global Online - Fri, 02/03/2012 - 10:17
Kenya struggles to spread the wealth from rapid growth.

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