The Global Food Crisis as a Monetary Phenomenon

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates again on Wednesday in an attempt to stimulate the domestic economy. While the combined impact of another rate cut and the impending arrival of stimulus checks in taxpayers' bank accounts may bode well for American retailers, the rate cut may also exacerbate the global food crisis.

That same day, Soledad Requena was one of 1,000 women banging pots and pans outside Peru's Congress, protesting soaring food prices. If the government can't increase subsidies on products like rice, bread and meat, she asked, "Where will we go to eat?"

How does cutting short term interest rates effect international food prices?

Recall that America has been running huge budget deficits the past five years, which largely is financed by the sale of U.S. Treasury Bonds, the government's primary debt financing instrument. Because of these deficits, and the current trade imbalance (importing more than we export), countries who sell us more goods than they buy have a lot of extra dollars lying around.

In the past, the central banks in those countries — including most of Asia and oil producers like Saudi Arabia — have taken their extra dollars and purchased more U.S. Treasury Bonds. They have done this for two reasons: for one, Treasury Bonds have long been considered one of the safest investments in the world, dependably holding their value over long periods of time. Second, by providing us with more cash now, Americans can continue buying their products — a shopping binge which has fueled tremendous growth in economies the world over.

But this cycle simply can't last forever. Lending us money so that we can purchase more good from abroad, then taking the profits from those sales and lending them back to us by buying more of our Treasury Bonds, is akin to having a store meet its sales projections by continually raising the limit on your credit card every time you max it out. Yes, this allows some countries to continue exporting and allows us to continue shopping — for a long time, in fact. It seems like a win-win, but sooner or later our bills must be paid.

When that happens, spending slows — which is the situation we find ourselves in today. Because our economy is propelled by consumer spending, the Fed feels obligated to lower the federal-fund interest rate — the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans — to keep the dollars flowing and the cash registers ringing.

Lower interest rates help spenders at home by making dollars easier to come by. This reduces borrower's mortgage and credit-card payments and making the purchase of new cars, refrigerators, stereos, home improvements, etc., more affordable. But increasing the supply of dollars reduces the value of each bill, which makes Treasury Bonds and other dollar-denominated investment products less enticing to international investors.

With fewer investors interested in buying dollar-denominated investments, the demand for dollars goes down. As supply goes up and demand goes down, the value of the dollar slides. This slide can become self-perpetuating: as the value of the dollar slips, already-low-paying bonds become even less attractive because potential buyers expect that the dollars they will be paid back in the future will be worth less than the dollars they lend us today. So even fewer buyers queue up to purchase our debt.

Here is where food prices come in. As Nathan Childs, a spokesman for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, put it:

Most rice in global markets is traded in dollars. So when the dollar declines, as a foreign currency is converted to dollars, it raises [rice's] dollar value. So some of the increase in global rice prices is due to the fact it was traded in dollars.

But, as the title of this post says — a quote lifted from a devastating piece by Spengler in Asia Times — this global food crisis is a monetary phenomenon. With the dollar having lost nearly half its value against the Euro in the past five years, central banks and investors are looking for more lucrative places to store their extra cash. We've seen a significant run up in the value of commodities like copper, silver, and oil the past year, driven in part by increased demand for raw materials in developing economies, but also driven by investors looking for better returns than what Treasury Bonds pay.

Now speculators have turned their attention to another type of commodity: food. Speculators aren't dumb — they recognize that increasing demand for grains for both food and biofuel is likely to continue for many years. Parking one's money in corn or rice futures is a rational financial decision when the value of the previously preferred investment, Treasury Bonds, is likely to slide.

As Jose Graziano of the United Nations' food program in Latin America states, "This is not a conspiracy theory.... The lack of confidence in the (U.S.) dollar has led investment funds to look for higher returns in commodities.... The crisis is a speculative attack and it will last."

How do we get out of this mess? Of course, increasing grain supply would help meet the increasing demand from developing nations, but increasing supply will take time. Keeping interest rates high and thereby strengthening the dollar would do a tremendous amount of good for global commodity markets. Yes, such a rate increase would hurt the American economy in the short term by hurting those already burdened by excessive debt. But people with dollars in their wallets — and that includes Americans who have been financially prudent — would see a massive increase in global spending power. And, more importantly, the world's poor would see grain prices fall back close to previous levels.

In the end, it may come down to a decision over what's more important: providing financial relief to domestic borrowers who have unwisely taken on too much debt, or making it easier for women like Peru's Soledad Requena to feed their families.

Comments

in Portland, Oregon

Brilliant Analysis of the Problem

But your final two paragraphs downplay the pain required by the solution. For example, you suggest "keeping interest rates high," although we are nowhere near Paul Volcker's stagflation-busting interest rates of 1981-1982. When was the last time we saw the core Fed rate rise above 8%? Yet those rates -- or higher -- will be necessary to correct the books.

This will only hurt in the "short term" if we consider 18 months or longer (time enough for a full global crop rotation) the "short term." Because agriculture commodity supplies lag demand by a season, it'll take at least that long for the market to sort out the proper price.

Finally, "financially prudent" describes a glancingly tiny set of Americans. We've been living in aggregate with negative savings for almost five years now. The only "people with dollars in their wallets" right now are coincidentally poised to become political pariahs -- American members of the "ownership class" (hedge fund managers?) and such warm and fuzzy foreign stakeholders as the PRC and House of Saud.

Bumping core rates to 6 or 7 percent might shake out the price signals we need, but think how this looks to the average American, who's been living in the red for five years. (And before we conjure up visions of reckless spending on lattes, McMansions, and plasma TVs, it's worth revisiting Elizabeth Warren's work on America's credit economy. She finds Americans have lost the spending flexibility of 30 years ago, and that the greatest spending increases are in housing, education, and healthcare -- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akVL7QY0S8A)

The proscribed rate hikes will depress business investment and construction, squeezing the job market and hurting exports (the one bright spot in the American economy right now). And because the commodities in question won't correct themselves for a year and half, we'll (perversely) have inflation on top of it. So Joe Average sees greater job insecurity, no raises, and rising prices. Meanwhile, foreign bond-holders and the Have-Mores (including those hedge fund managers, mortgage bankers, and reckless CEOs who got us into this mess) will see their wallets fatten for no effort.

I agree that the Fed's loose money sends the wrong message at the wrong time. Now is not the time for America to go on a metaphorical bender -- that's like eating yourself thin. I think we're witnessing the limits of monetary policy as a corrective tool. (I might even argue that it never was a corrective tool, and the prosperity of the last 20 years have been driven by blindness to energy fundamentals, but that's a different soapbox.)

There's nothing the Fed, by itself, can do to fix this mess. I think we'll need careful belt-tightening in the financial sector (interest-rate hikes) coupled with Keynesian initiatives on the government side. Asian-style industrial policy? Universal health care? An alternative energy Manhattan Project? A nationwide overhaul of passenger rail? Urban infrastructure upgrades? None of these would necessarily presage either loose money or market closures, but would go a long way to restoring the value of the dollar, providing jobs, and rebuilding American productive capacity. The catch is that it's going to mean spending money, and that's something America is rapidly running out of.

in Portland, Oregon

Thank you for your kind words

Thank you for your kind words.

I agree with you that in my post I gloss over the potential consequences of a prolonged economic slowdown. James Fallows did a tremendous piece in The Atlantic two or three years ago about such a hypothetical scenario. Massive civil unrest and a near collapse of the existing political system are among the possibilities he considers. Paul Krugman today raised similar concerns. A serious economic slow down here could get ugly.

That said, I don't agree with your division of American citizenship into Joe Average versus the Have-Mores or the suggestion that only the Have-Mores would see the impact of a strong dollar. Working class Americans see the benefit of a strong dollar every time they shop at Wal-Mart or Target. Consumer goods kept cheap by a strong dollar have reduced the impact of wage stagnation for the past few years, so though many people aren't making more they've been able to buy more for less. That has resulted in a significant improvement of the standard of living of everyone, even those at the bottom of the income spectrum.

Many working class Americans also have equity in their houses and retirement accounts. Yes, in percentage terms their slice of the economic pie has shrunk as the Have-Mores' share has grown, but that does mean they aren't feeling the impact of a weak dollar. Plenty of Baby Boomers of modest means have dreamed about traveling abroad when they finally quit their jobs. That dream has suddenly become much less affordable.

One other point I failed to make in my post but that has been discussed previously on Global Envision: dollar-denominated remittances have a tremendous impact on other countries economies, so when we let the dollar falls we end up doing grave damage to those country's economies.

To me it boils down to this: if we keep the dollar strong, we still have to deal with an economic realignment but, for the most part, we keep our problems at home. When we let the dollar fall as precipitously as we have, we build our recovery by exporting economic instability and by repaying our debts with less valuable assets, behavior that is not likely to endear us to our creditors.

My preference is that we suck it up and get our own financial house in order rather than export our problems to other countries where our financial mismanagement can have life threatening consequences. Yes, we might need to set up massive job training programs to move workers away from sectors like construction and manufacturing to ones we are in real need of, like healthcare, but that seems preferable to ruining the credibility of our currency. Besides, Americans have always prided themselves on being able to innovate our way out of tight pinches. I don't see us doing that by trying to roll ourselves back to a manufacturing and export driven economy. The race to the bottom of the value chain is a loser even if we "win."

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