The Economy? Ethnic divisions? Both?

Topics: Culture, Conflict and War
Countries: Kenya

Most Americans were shocked at the violence following Kenya's December 2007 elections. Many think of Kenya as the one stable country in the horn of Africa-- a tourist destination for safaris, not bloodshed. The Council on Foreign Relations published a great report Friday, outlining the economic and political factors which have played a role in the continuing violence.

The report outlines how ultimately economic and ethnic factors are inherently linked. While Kenya has not traditionally been a country with strong ethnic divisions (citing a poll in which 70% of the population would rather be identified as Kenyan rather than according to tribal affiliations), wealth is unevenly divided among various ethnic groups. For example, "the head of the Nairobi Stock exchange, the Central Bank of Kenya, and Kenya Electric Generating Company, the region’s largest power generator, are all Kikuyu (Bloomberg)." I might add, so is the current President Mwai Kibaki.

Kenyans see democracy and economic growth as inextricably linked. Their main aspiration for democracy, according to Afrobarometer, is that it will create more equitable distribution of economic opportunity. For Kenya’s economy to take off, it must distribute power among ethnic groups. “Kenya could be a shining example,” says Barkan. “But it could unravel further politically and the economy could become moribund.” Juma believes for regional imbalances to be addressed, the country needs to upgrade its infrastructure. He suggests that a large-scale government employment scheme, structured like the New Deal in the 1930s United States, could employ youth to do this.

This inequality (which is compared to levels in Liberia and the DRC), coupled with corruption and strong man political practices has resulted in the violence that has claimed an estimated 800 lives.

Comments

in Portland, Oregon

The downside of Kenya's economic boom

The Wall Street Journal published a similar article this week, suggesting that much of the ethnic tension has been an outgrowth of uneven distribution of profits from Kenya's recent economic growth. One quote, in particular, from Steve Morrison, director of the Africa program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stuck with me: "It's a classic theory of revolution. People mobilize when things are getting better, not when they're getting worse."

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